ACUS11 KWNS 250003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250002=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-250200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0298
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Areas affected...Central Oklahoma...Southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59...

Valid 250002Z - 250200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts will be
possible this evening. The threat is expected to be too isolated for
weather watch issuance, to the east of the current watch.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Oklahoma City
shows a north-to-south corridor of convection across west-central
Oklahoma, where a couple severe storms are ongoing. The airmass
ahead of this convection is weakly unstable, with MLCAPE generally
around 500 J/kg. Water vapor imagery suggests that a subtle
shortwave trough is moving through central Oklahoma. This feature
should continue to provide support for continued convective
development for a couple more hours. Mesoscale analysis from the RAP
currently has strong deep-layer shear in place across much of
central Oklahoma, suggesting that an isolated severe threat will
continue this evening. However, as the storms move further east into
weaker instability, any severe threat should become increasingly
isolated. Large hail and a few damaging wind gusts will be possible,
before the severe threat continues to downtrend further.

..Broyles.. 03/25/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4OFBqWl5cjhfyrxPGvra04YZCrChfzUho1NKZ-9IjXT97Mz1AdgYKvctX3qql8P66FHjBfeLI= TRmNBjUrRRuQmZhhUE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 34919664 35669660 36739666 37319672 37539689 37659734
37569786 37289810 36699820 35789816 34839802 34489779
34419742 34459709 34619682 34919664=20


=3D =3D =3D
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