ACUS11 KWNS 242347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242346=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-250145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma...North Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59...

Valid 242346Z - 250145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts and potential for
a brief tornado will likely continue for a couple more hours. As
this storms moves to the east of WW 59, a local extension in area
may be needed across parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a trough extending
southward across west Texas, with a dryline to the east of the
trough. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the
dryline in northwest Texas, where surface dewpoints are in the mid
to upper 50s F and MLCAPE is estimated in the 500 to 1000 J/kg
range. The Frederick WSR-88D VWP currently has 0-6 km shear near 60
knots, and veering winds with height in the lowest 1 km. This, along
with strong large-scale ascent associated with an approaching
shortwave trough, will support a threat for supercells and large
hail. Wind damage will also be possible. In addition, low-level
shear appears sufficient for a tornado threat, but any threat should
remain isolated and brief. As the storm in eastern Wichita County
near the Red River moves further east into the weaker instability, a
downtrend is eventually expected to occur.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/24/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7RxzyIfrMoX-2QxSqAameJWUXsXMk5cPNlpBOwArPWKwypRvojSwzUjgAC78DPlCgEgGGAGY0= ZBhyDVTbVpd2i8KR50$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34699742 34629787 34389836 33959866 33519865 33189838
33089792 33119749 33249715 33469683 33829667 34179665
34569692 34699742=20


=3D =3D =3D
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