ACUS11 KWNS 242305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242305=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-250130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0296
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Areas affected...Northwest Kansas...Southern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 242305Z - 250130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe threat will likely continue across parts
of northwest Kansas and southern Nebraska. Isolated large hail and a
few strong wind gusts will be possible. Weather watch issuance
remains possible, although the severe threat is only expected to
persist for a few more hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 987 mb low over far
southwest Kansas, with an inverted surface trough extending
north-northeastward from northwest Kansas into central Nebraska.
Several linear-based storms are ongoing near the trough. In spite of
surface dewpoints only in the mid to upper 40s F, the RAP has 500 to
750 J/kg of MLCAPE. The last WSR-88D VWP at Hastings has 30-35 knots
of 0-6 km shear, and veering of the winds with height in the lowest
2 km. This should be enough to continue an isolated severe threat.
Isolated large hail could occur with strongest of updrafts, along
with a few marginally severe wind gusts. Also, a potential for a
landspout tornado could continue along and near the eastern edge of
the convection.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/24/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4I4AYjol6eyyrVyw-0xaGiO6ZPkrYEExevzN9vs2fkgPsMA3wz4u2c_Ku0QpSOXKNPV9CDSkN= kFnMUljkdDo0cAuW0Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 39249893 39899845 40489821 40769837 40919888 40919931
40839961 40609986 40409998 39800040 39470051 39210036
39099993 39079945 39249893=20


=3D =3D =3D
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