ACUS11 KWNS 230727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230727=20
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-231130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Areas affected...Parts of NY into New England

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

Valid 230727Z - 231130Z

SUMMARY...A mix of heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain will
continue to spread east-northeast from parts of southern/eastern New
York into New England through sunrise. Heavy snow rates of 1-1.5
in/hr will be most probable in a band along the northern periphery
of the mixed transition zone.

DISCUSSION...An extensive swath of mixed winter precip is ongoing
across southern to eastern NY into parts of southern VT/NH. This has
been aided by strong low-level warm theta-e advection amid a 50-60
kt low-level jet per ENX/BGM VWP data. Low-level warming has again
been faster up the Hudson Valley than indicated by evening model
guidance with prior 1"/hr snowfall rates at ALB transitioning to
mixed freezing rain/sleet during the past hour. Based on recent
radar trends, this mixed phase should be the dominant precip type as
it gradually expands east-northeast into parts of MA and southern
VT/NH in the next few hours. Precipitation rates from 0.04-0.12
in/hr should be expected based on upstream measurements/guidance.
Heavier snowfall rates should still occur just to the
north-northeast of the transition zone, with rates of 1-1.5 in/hr
becoming increasingly probable across parts of northern VT/NH into a
part of southwest ME through sunrise.

..Grams.. 03/23/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4NnSxwW_YQyn_g1I8fdJkmZbelgQNWodAcDgOmB_3weSwS3meP2pVXNDup1GkzpKpRmL6OVcR= HP4xJcOp_QYB9KSv7U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON 43177514 44237427 44687330 44847126 44877067 44687024
44487007 44227007 43847030 43227079 42497163 42167269
41957319 41907382 41937419 42737528 43177514=20


=3D =3D =3D
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