ACUS11 KWNS 221010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221009=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-221215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Areas affected...Coastal southeast LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221009Z - 221215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An organized but elevated QLCS should continue eastward
across the rest of southeast LA through mid-morning. The tail end of
the line segment along the immediate coast will have the best chance
to produce strong gusts from 45-60 mph and marginally severe hail of 0.75-1.25".

DISCUSSION...A longer-lived MCS with a history of embedded bowing
structures has largely evolved into more of a north/south-oriented
short-line segment across south-central LA and the adjacent
nearshore waters. A pronounced rear-inflow jet is evident in the
time-series of LCH VWP data, and this line segment should remain
organized as it progresses east across southeast LA. Peak measured
wind gusts have ranged from 45-50 mph, as the elevated character of
the line segment has mitigated severe gusts at the surface. With the
line paralleling the MUCAPE gradient, convection closer to the
immediate coast will have the best chance to become marginally
severe. The offshore surface warm front should continue to drift
north, but it does not appear it will advance inland fast enough
relative to the line's forward speed, outside of possibly
Plaquemines Parish.

..Grams/Edwards.. 03/22/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8L1hH2aXOtsWkQiFXBVu1hA7NDgOZ9rso0u-u3UxU-Dkk79AGYHD6yK-O_xWocOGrukWCC7nX= NkP4mQosDCjZXHyRpc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29929171 29969092 30078997 30298929 30378875 30248844
29798849 29078880 28908918 28838954 28869006 28889124
29159181 29929171=20


=3D =3D =3D
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