ACUS11 KWNS 220559
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220559=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-220800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0279
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Areas affected...Immediate coast of southeast TX and southwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 220559Z - 220800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A rather confined corridor of strong to severe wind gusts
from 55-70 mph will be possible along the immediate coast of
southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana through the pre-dawn hours.
A watch is not expected given the extremely limited spatial extent
of the threat over land.

DISCUSSION...A small MCS with an embedded bowing structure will
likely persist eastward over the next several hours along a portion
of the northwest Gulf Coast. The northern part of this bow is
elevated, with the southern part crossing into the northern edge of surface-based instability across the south Houston metro/Galveston
Bay area where surface dew points are in the mid 60s. This bowing
MCS has a history of 40-45 kt wind gusts across the western Houston
Metro Area. Convective outflow from a weaker thunderstorm cluster
over the Lake Charles area may aid in intensifying the bowing
structure amid a low-level vorticity-rich environment, a scenario
generally supported by evening CAM guidance. The apex of the
slightly elevated bow may hug the immediate coastline through the
pre-dawn hours with stronger gusts/waterspouts likely offshore.

..Grams/Edwards.. 03/22/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6ZBqEz__zxPVgUWJJCGVD7D3sswxZpwzLlezoBOEuvV0zesM7r6tyfQ21k75WHsHDhZLm5mty= 2gT648jPF1NJQjjEnw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON 30039511 29859457 29849410 29909352 29999318 29789211
29669154 29479136 29299140 29179166 29139201 29229437
29139504 29379529 29589519 30039511=20


=3D =3D =3D
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