ACUS11 KWNS 220204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220203=20
TXZ000-220330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0277
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0903 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Areas affected...portions of southern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 220203Z - 220330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail may accompany ongoing
supercells over the few hours.

DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorm updrafts, including one supercell
structure over San Antonio, is traversing a surface boundary across
portions of southern TX. To the south of this boundary resides a
warmer and moister boundary layer contributing to over 1000 J/kg
MUCAPE (given the presence of 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates per 00Z mesoanalysis). Regional VADs and the mesoanalysis also depict
elongated hodographs with marginal low-level curvature, suggesting
that severe hail should be the primary hazard with ongoing storms.
Ongoing nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer would also suggest
that the ongoing severe threat is temporally limited. A WW issuance
is not currently expected since the severe threat should also remain
isolated.

..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6kC-ITOmTEeWwXYWjWwBVBN81P7YQDu2WZtkV7Ipf1d6MOTT_cZr-cx_YcVtcGwLZCGyeoTCp= vCglHo-L2hjyjeZPMA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29379592 29149647 29019730 29019794 29119836 29319851
29599848 29909820 30199767 30229657 30069592 29679565
29379592=20


=3D =3D =3D
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