ACUS11 KWNS 211019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211018=20
TXZ000-211215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Areas affected...Middle TX Coastal Plain

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 211018Z - 211215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is still expected to occur across
parts of the Middle Texas Coastal Plain through mid-morning.
Environment remains conditionally favorable for a couple supercells,
with a primary threat of large hail.

DISCUSSION...Earlier expectations for sustained thunderstorm
development across the Middle TX Coastal Plain have failed to
materialize appreciably over land. It appears the remnant elevated
mixed layer has provided sufficient capping to deter storms, west of
the northwest Gulf. But with a 30-35 kt low-level jet per the CRP
VWP, in conjunction with numerous light showers, at some point deep
convection should become sustained. This scenario continues to be well-advertised, albeit delayed, in early morning guidance. Once
this occurs, the environment should be characterized by favorable
deep-layer speed shear and an elongated hodograph, supporting
mid-level updraft rotation. Large hail still appears to be the
primary threat with sustained convection tending to be at least
slightly elevated, north of the upper 60s surface dew points plume
that has reached Aransas Bay.

..Grams/Thompson.. 03/21/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_-hAd1hEQ5J4tFDk6vnPx2B2IFvZ2ekoYaC_IGqS0xk9DkMOnTeEfOOqYEdjnjkDoy8P2ywId= lup-ZBtilnVaRSSi5k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 27589692 28289809 29039791 29689656 29459557 29039509
28709509 27589692=20


=3D =3D =3D
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