ACUS11 KWNS 202152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202151=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-202345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0272
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024

Areas affected...portions of the TX Panhandle and southwestern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 202151Z - 202345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across
portions of the TX Panhandle and southwestern OK. Strong winds and
small hail are possible with the strongest cores, although these
hazards are expected to be relatively localized. A watch appears
unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...A few deeper updrafts are observed to the southwest of
CDS in the TX Rolling Plains. They appear to be forced by broad
near-surface convergence along a weak moisture gradient, with
(relatively) higher dewpoints to the south (currently around 40 F).
Mostly sunny conditions throughout the day have yielded well-mixed
boundary layers throughout the region, with cloud bases estimated
near 3 km AGL. Relatively cold temperatures aloft (around -16 to -18
C at 500 mb per current RAP forecast profiles) yield some mid-level
buoyancy that could support continued updraft development. The
vertical wind profile is characterized by steadily strengthening
westerly flow with height, yielding roughly 30-40 kts of mid-level
shear in the estimated cloud-bearing layer. This could support some
instances of small hail with any stronger updraft cores. Deep,
well-mixed boundary layers would also support some risk of locally
stronger winds associated with dry microbursts. The overall threat
is expected to be rather localized and marginal, and watch issuance
appears unlikely at this time.

..Flournoy/Edwards.. 03/20/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5_1GG3kfzUVGWByaZQc4vrpAWEFKJbB-T63bNMqwGDA8qEZqP2ZY_Kc-QQC6DnB6DqlaLeUMT= RY6k8ZXg9g8h1mBoI8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 33689995 33190050 32890127 32850190 33430224 34250197
34800140 34980063 34979985 34769949 34199953 33689995=20


=3D =3D =3D
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