ACUS11 KWNS 171255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171254=20
LAZ000-171500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Areas affected...Parts of the LA Gulf Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 171254Z - 171500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging gusts and perhaps some
hail may develop this morning.

DISCUSSION...Widespread convection is ongoing this morning across
the northeast Gulf of Mexico and adjacent portions of the LA and
upper TX coasts, in association with a convectively enhanced
shortwave trough. Continued upscale growth into an eastward-moving
MCS is possible with time, as convection moves near/north of a
baroclinic zone draped across the northern Gulf of Mexico. With the accompanying MCV expected to track near the coast, some threat for
locally damaging gusts may evolve slightly inland if an organized
MCS does develop. Otherwise, moderate elevated buoyancy could
support an isolated hail threat within the warm-advection wing of
the MCS across far southern LA.

With the inland threat expected to remain generally limited in areal
coverage and magnitude, watch issuance is currently considered
unlikely.

..Dean/Thompson.. 03/17/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-pKl9s_CFfydzdI_-uw956QqE7QWYIzFtHBUPMVy-QC1JS8fvfQIp4LuIiWvvwQJz65PQlXXA= fYZxdxaA6dhqUHGU50$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29709333 29909326 29939174 29889066 29759003 29408991
29238992 29048999 28989038 29069100 29079147 29159210
29229279 29409309 29579328 29709333=20


=3D =3D =3D
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