ACUS11 KWNS 170240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170239=20
TXZ000-170445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0267
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Areas affected...parts of south Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 170239Z - 170445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected across parts of south Texas
late this evening, some of which may produce hail and gusty winds. A
watch may be issued.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing in northeast Mexico in
advance of a subtle shortwave trough apparent in water vapor
satellite imagery. Across south Texas, some nocturnal surface
stabilization has occurred. However, an ACARS profile from San
Antonio and regional RAP profiles indicate the presence of a deep
moist layer, which should continue to support convection even in the
presence of a surface stable layer. Given diffuse low-level forcing
for ascent, storms are expected to remain cellular, though some
clustering is apparent in short-term model guidance. In addition,
with deep CAPE profiles and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
along with long, straight hodographs (effective bulk shear values of
50-60 kts), large hail is expected to be the primary threat.
Additionally, some gusty winds are possible with any clustering that
occurs, though this is mitigated by the relatively moist profile.
Short-term model guidance indicates storms will continue eastward
across south Texas through the night before moving off the coast
early in the morning.

..Supinie/Goss.. 03/17/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4tubRkyCLOuY98oh9zd4L9SH-iaghl8e7sVvCMH-7xTGcMxaUoJN147Gsk4vTPldmSZcrAJvV= yVSkaFRm48iysGLzO8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON 27829998 29110093 29600014 29819895 29699805 29269725
28619694 27899703 27489763 26929876 26659932 27829998=20


=3D =3D =3D
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