ACUS11 KWNS 160711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160711=20
TXZ000-160915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0266
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Areas affected...Parts of Deep South TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 55...

Valid 160711Z - 160915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 55
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and isolated severe gusts will
persist overnight. Local watch extension may be needed.

DISCUSSION...A supercell cluster over Deep South TX has shown
gradual signs of upscale growth early this morning. A supercell over
Starr County has recently accelerated eastward, while an earlier
supercell has nearly stalled over Brooks County. The merger of these
cells and their respective cold pools could result in a
forward-propagating complex that approaches the coast later this
morning.=20

Flow is generally rather weak below 6 km AGL, but upper-level flow
is sufficient to aid in maintaining some storm organization through
the early morning. Steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess
of 2000 J/kg will continue to support some hail threat for as long
as semi-discrete storm mode is maintained. Strong to locally severe
gusts will also be possible, especially if any additional upscale
growth occurs. With WW 55 scheduled to expire at 08Z, local watch
extension may need to be considered, depending on short-term
convective trends.

..Dean/Thompson.. 03/16/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6bHHdoiNJ2TV5lZ34bJRoS3Ri7cpMzR-73iKDaUtq06iJcgNKDnpcE9lsSNDI7iBMRmgia15M= WEowdyeEaAsMNwQgrI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON 26629920 27219825 27299781 27229752 26949735 26729736
26539760 26399794 26329828 26269844 26329891 26629920=20


=3D =3D =3D
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