ACUS11 KWNS 151445
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151445=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-151645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0258
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0945 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Areas affected...portions of central/southern LA...southern MS/AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 151445Z - 151645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential is increasing across parts of Louisiana
into southern Mississippi late this morning. Large hail and damaging
gusts, along with a tornado or two will be possible across the MCD
area through the afternoon. A watch will likely be needed within the
next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Occasionally strong storms have been ongoing this
morning across central Alabama across WW 51. This activity will
persist and local watch extensions may be needed across the
Birmingham forecast area in the short term to address locally
damaging gust and hail concerns.=20

To the south/southwest across LA into southern MS, stronger heating
is noted with temperatures approaching the mid 70s amid 70-73 F
dewpoints. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary-layer
are already supporting moderate to strong destabilization. Visible
satellite imagery depicts agitated cumulus along/ahead of the
southeast-sagging outflow. Furthermore, water vapor imagery
indicates a compact shortwave trough over east TX. This is expected
to overspread LA/MS this afternoon, providing large-scale ascent
across the very moist and unstable boundary-layer. Morning CAMs
depict increasing storm coverage by midday and this seems reasonable
given short term trends in observational data this morning. Vertical
shear will be somewhat marginal initially, but increasing through
the day. Supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts
will be the main concern. However, enlarged and favorably curved
low-level hodographs are noted in forecast soundings, and a couple
tornadoes will be possible. A new watch will likely be needed for
portions of LA into parts of southern MS/AL within the next 1-2
hours.

..Leitman/Goss.. 03/15/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4BwquUeHXNBn3RvTYyz5Dvq2BLW9KQaF4Z40nwgFzJRQ4TLsSF3-XO1cIvkM_bAqAdaGNWs80= 1uWVqEAWFD8gsYO5l0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31668589 31308641 30858710 30508774 29719017 29639148
29859300 30179343 30699363 31239360 31729329 31909270
32508605 32418578 32148567 31858582 31668589=20


=3D =3D =3D
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