ACUS11 KWNS 151246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151245=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-151415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Areas affected...East-central MS into central/northeast AL and
northwest GA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51...

Valid 151245Z - 151415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51
continues.

SUMMARY...A localized damaging-wind threat may persist through the
morning.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived QLCS is gradually moving eastward across
parts of MS/AL into northwest GA this morning. Within the larger
QLCS, shorter line segments have occasionally taken on a north-south orientation through the early morning, accompanied by some increase
in organization and damaging-wind potential. This general trend may
persist into mid morning, with an isolated damaging-wind threat
accompanying the stronger line segments that do not get undercut by
outflow.=20

Some threat may spread outside of WW 51 into northwest GA, though
the need for downstream watch issuance is uncertain, due to weaker
instability with northeastward extent (as noted in the 12Z FFC
sounding and objective mesoanalyses). Farther southwest, some uptick
remains possible from east-central MS into central AL, where MLCAPE
of 500-1000 J/kg and favorable deep-layer shear remain in place this
morning. Local watch extension may need to be considered for parts
of MS/AL, depending on short-term convective trends.

..Dean/Thompson.. 03/15/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9DWGN4_LBRt485EOZSpx5B60G9eB5GMTGMndAhZxHRXMbnMRSNWJPDyvAXGjafelHXSS90b9H= H6cgQX6yVw1LoJbkqY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...JAN...

LAT...LON 33048915 33118746 34018604 34848520 34838479 34428447
33348515 32728639 32478762 32358836 32318902 32338946
32608954 33048915=20


=3D =3D =3D
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