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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0253

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Mar 15 07:54:26 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 150754
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150753=20
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-151000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0253
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0253 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

    Areas affected...Northeast TX...Southern AR...Northern LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 150753Z - 151000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong gusts possible overnight.

    DISCUSSION...A strong storm with some supercell characteristics has
    recently developed in Union County, AR, along the eastern fringe of
    extensive elevated convection ongoing near the ArkLaTex and
    ArkLaMiss regions. While this particular cell will soon be undercut
    by southward-sagging outflow, an additional strong storm or two
    could evolve from near the LA/AR border to northeast TX, within a
    low-level warm advection regime. For storms that can become rooted
    near the surface, MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg and effective shear
    of 30-40 kt will support some storm organization, with a threat for
    isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. The KSHV VWP depicts rather
    strong low-level shear/SRH, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out
    with any cell that can become surface-based. However, in general,
    the longevity of any organized storms is expected to be relatively
    limited, and any severe threat likely to be remain mostly isolated
    overnight.

    ..Dean/Thompson.. 03/15/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6MydJMdRHMhcNMluDDc_YNiaml0B8yZdxp2Rp8nAsfHYCxacOkFQp3wjd100gzPrNFGf2pf0i= BHr0rz00k4QwLDE2aQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32929492 33279395 33519312 33519243 33439175 33319144
    32959132 32529142 32359180 32279260 32219341 32239388
    32339506 32929492=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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