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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0246

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Mar 15 00:27:52 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 150027
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150027=20
    ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-150230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0246
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0727 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

    Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...Northeast Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...46...

    Valid 150027Z - 150230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45, 46
    continues.

    SUMMARY...All severe hazards, including large hail, wind damage and
    a potential for a few tornadoes are expected over the next couple
    hours from southeast Oklahoma into northeast Texas
    east-northeastward into central Arkansas.

    DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells are currently ongoing from
    the vicinity of the Red River north of Dallas, east-northeastward
    into southwest Arkansas. The storms are located just to the north
    and west of a pocket of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is near
    or above 2500 J/kg. The cluster of strong to severe storms will
    continue to move eastward into the stronger instability over the
    next couple of hours. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear,
    will help sustain the stronger updrafts making large hail likely
    with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will
    be possible with the strongest of updrafts. In addition, low-level
    shear is forecast to gradually increase, as a 40 knot jet develops
    across the Ark-La-Tex early this evening. In response, the tornado
    threat may continue. The WOFS currently is forecasting a locally
    greater tornado risk from Little Rock extending west-southwestward
    to near the Oklahoma-Arkansas state line over the next couple of
    hours.

    ..Broyles.. 03/15/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ImY0jUNcxYn2AdB4XecQtgUZizi-_k4AR_kP0zeAmnxMYCaLZ_v17t-gg7fdPUCM8Txwkw75= TAIgZreCMM79LjrYUU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35379388 35239546 34919623 34189659 33459663 33229639
    33289579 33429447 33689296 33949204 34509149 35049140
    35419208 35379388=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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