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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0243

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Mar 14 23:29:24 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 142329
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142328=20
    ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-150130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0243
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0628 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

    Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...Far Southwest
    Arkansas...Northeast Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...46...

    Valid 142328Z - 150130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45, 46
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail
    and wind damage, will continue this evening from southeast Oklahoma
    into parts of northeast Texas. The threat should eventually affect
    far southwest Arkansas.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Fort Smith,
    Arkansas shows several supercells and multiple short bowing segments
    across southeast Oklahoma, with isolated storms developing across
    northeast Texas. These storms are located ahead of a cold front in a
    moist airmass, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1500 to
    2500 J/kg range. In addition, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates
    exceeding 8 C/km is located across much of the area. This
    thermodynamic environment combined with moderate deep-layer shear
    will be favorable for supercells with large hail. The strongest of
    storms may be capable of producing hailstones greater than 2 inches
    in diameter. As cell coverage increases this evening, an organized
    line segment with wind-damage potential could also develop.

    ..Broyles.. 03/14/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_tTl8RDVsOCU3n24I_pwjl802Qk0cxJM6oG8__a2VziDJAzQMxe7ZmjkurJ0Z6UJiuSK-aw-l= n4YrK5Bdg4wIxjq1fA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 31969581 32159534 32459480 33069428 33679406 34639404
    35039431 35229496 35219562 34939638 34609674 34189697
    33419724 32759727 32239708 31959648 31969581=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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