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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0239

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Mar 14 22:09:55 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 142209
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142209=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-142345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0239
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0509 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of east-central Missouri into
    central/southern Illinois

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 43...

    Valid 142209Z - 142345Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 43 continues.

    SUMMARY...The greatest risk for very large hail and tornadoes in the
    next 1-2 hours will be in southern Illinois. Intense storms near the
    cold front will eventually be overtaken by the front and undergo a
    weakening trend.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercell storms continues east/southeast
    of the St. Louis area. A secondary cluster is also ongoing near the
    cold front in west-central/central Illinois. An area of locally
    backed surface winds is evident in surface observations ahead of the
    more southern cluster of supercells. Despite only modest low-level
    shear, this area will pose the greatest risk for tornadoes in the
    next hour or two. These storms will also pose a risk of 2-3 inch
    hail.

    Farther north near the cold front, the threat for tornadoes should
    be less. Large/very-large hail will continue to be a threat given
    favorable deep-layer shear and storm mode. With the cold front also
    beginning to make southward progress, the duration of the severe
    threat may be more short-lived farther north. Buoyancy will decrease
    behind the front and is not expected to support strong/severe
    elevated storms.

    ..Wendt.. 03/14/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_SNYtoevMoRbWqXh-Q8jpPov_3F9RrzHKmFRXifbLjLUJunIBa65eBP4o4OSB8T6qP57h-pem= Vv0FTB02QL8SqkKGCM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 38029022 38279047 39079072 39379078 39829006 40228821
    39918770 38628794 38108902 38029022=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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