ACUS11 KWNS 142055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142055=20
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-142200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into central Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 43...

Valid 142055Z - 142200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 43 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across Tornado Watch 43.
Organizing supercells will pose an increasing risk for large to very
large hail, damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...As of 2055 UTC, radar and satellite observations showed
maturing supercells ongoing across eastern MO near the St. Louis
Metro. The downstream environment remains very favorable for
supercells. These storms have shown increasingly strong mid-level
rotation over the last hour. Area VAD wind profiles show long but
straight, hodographs supportive of large to very large hail. Hail
could exceed 2-3 inches in the strongest storms given very favorable
shear and buoyancy distributions. Experimental WOFS guidance also
suggests strong mid-level UH probabilities downstream of the
evolving storms. Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are also
possible given the storm mode. Thus, the severe risk across WW43
continues.

..Lyons.. 03/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8l3R6YZZZrTVffdQJAAAdZG8Dsnj7ZdB-6sYHMxqBdodrAdW3tJO16uGCNTW_fF-CeMcoVTym= cx5bq1d7ROSWcr46_g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 38448795 39318760 40268763 40598809 40678908 40349002
39929091 39669162 39119217 38689212 37949137 37719071
37649023 37688954 38228842 38448795=20


=3D =3D =3D
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