ACUS11 KWNS 142016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142016=20
MSZ000-142215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...Portions of MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 142016Z - 142215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind risk may exist with any
thunderstorms that can develop. Watch issuance is not expected in
the short term.

DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms have recently formed across
southeast MS, on the eastern edge of the unstable warm sector across
the lower MS Valley. Additional convective development appears
possible over the next couple of hours across parts of central into
northern MS where the cu field is gradually becoming more agitated
in some locations. Large-scale forcing across this region remains
fairly weak, but a weak southern-stream shortwave trough should
continue to advance northeastward across LA/MS this afternoon, which
may encourage additional development. Recent VWPs from KDGX/KGWX
show weak low-level southerly flow gradually veering and
strengthening with height through mid levels, with deep-layer shear
generally 25-35 kt (stronger with northward extent in MS). This
should be sufficient for modest updraft organization and possible
clustering with time. Occasional strong to damaging winds of 50-60
mph may occur with the more robust cores, and perhaps marginally
severe hail. Given that the overall severe threat will likely remain
quite isolated this afternoon, watch issuance is not expected in the
short term.

..Gleason/Goss.. 03/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_LWUxL5AIQaxkmpC-UfDsY8se1iYpbW2Wt5e0tsgh5AuPoOyeibP322wjFovBYplHsFgGrWge= TQGeJzWeZwzGE-jPIc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 32278855 31418886 31038952 31009019 31179075 32039093
33419063 34339021 34668972 34678913 34348851 33708827
32278855=20


=3D =3D =3D
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