ACUS11 KWNS 141759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141758=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-141930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0232
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...parts of far southeast KS...northwest AR...MO and
western IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 141758Z - 141930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storm development appears likely early this afternoon
across a broad warm sector with multiple boundaries. Supercells
capable of all hazards appear likely given sufficient shear and
buoyancy. A WW is likely in the next hour.

DISCUSSION...Early afternoon visible imagery showed a broad cumulus
field becoming progressively more agitated east of a slow-moving
cold front across parts of far southeastern KS, northwest AR and
southwestern MO. Multiple modifying outflow/differential heating
boundaries lie across the warm sector and near the front as observed
by area ME TARS. Strong diurnal heating is ongoing and expected to
continue modifying the air mass across the warm sector and along
these boundaries. With the ongoing heating, surface dewpoints in the
low to mid 60s F are supporting 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE with
minimal CINH remaining. Area model soundings and VAD wind profiles
indicate moderate to strong effective shear of 45-55 kt supportive
of storm organization. While low-level flow is somewhat veered,
supercell wind profiles are in place and subtle forcing for ascent
will favor a more cellular mode, at least initially. Steep lapse
rates, moderate buoyancy and favorable shear will support a risk for
all hazards, especially significant hail, with storms able to
develop.

Hi-res CAM and experimental WOFS guidance solutions show storm
development along the front, across the outflow/differential heating
axis, and within the warm-sector across northwestern AR are all
possible early this afternoon. While an initially discrete storm
mode is expected, additional development southwest, and numerous
storm interactions appear likely. Upscale growth into multiple
clusters with supercell and short bowing segment structures will
support multiple severe hazards. Given the increasing severe risk a
new Tornado Watch is likely within the next hour.

..Lyons/Goss.. 03/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5PTmAQG2dv6aj6aBRi2dVno1nHcpLh20zWMLmjQYZZ5SSIhp0bSdj_FTYjy1rBzJzUXWutNlp= s0GWWALqUysRyaPCl8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 36599075 36129233 35489380 35509419 35699451 36029466
36679484 37199517 37509517 37749512 38049496 38519464
39019421 39289368 39739236 40039066 40049037 39598950
39148912 38748897 38388890 37788888 37278906 37118935
36828999 36599075=20


=3D =3D =3D
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