ACUS11 KWNS 141546
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141546=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-141745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0230
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...Portions of north-central TX and central/eastern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 141546Z - 141745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing threat for very large (2-4 inch) hail,
severe/damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will
necessitate watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Cu is deepening late this morning across western north
into north-central TX and central OK along a surface trough/dryline
feature. A large reservoir of buoyancy is already present across
this region per area 12Z soundings, with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE
based on 15Z mesoanalysis. Continued daytime heating will likely
result in further erosion of the low-level cap, and convective
initiation seems likely within an hour, or sooner (by 1630Z/1130 AM
CDT), especially across north-central TX into south-central OK. Very
large hail of 2-4 inches in diameter will likely be the main threat
with supercells that develop, as steep mid-level lapse rates and
strong deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt easily support robust mid-level
updraft rotation and intensity. The tornado threat is less clear,
especially with time this afternoon as the low-level jet across this
region is forecast to gradually veer and weaken through the day.
But, sufficient low-level shear currently exists to support some
low-level updraft rotation and associated tornado risk.
Severe/damaging winds also appear possible, especially if any small
clusters can develop with time later this afternoon. Given current convective/observational trends, watch issuance will likely be
needed soon.

..Gleason/Goss.. 03/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ENVwGSMIhXUnlzahQqUbRgV7M_MZqW-KS1IkISAM30CE2UlUZIh7waHOfi_Ji91XdvgxYpE2= evydMaUVS0tcEL7ZYs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33619863 35589696 36289620 36659549 36559465 35749455
34959509 33619640 33049704 33039840 33159882 33619863=20


=3D =3D =3D
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