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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0225

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Mar 14 03:11:48 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 140311
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140310=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-140515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0225
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1010 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

    Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Western and Central Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 140310Z - 140515Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across the
    remainder of eastern Kansas around midnight. The storms are forecast
    to spread east-northeastward into Missouri during the early
    overnight period. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed
    across the region within the next 90 minutes.

    DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level
    trough over the Desert Southwest, with a mid-level jet in the base
    of the system extending east-northeastward into the southern Plains
    and northern Ozarks. A distinct mid-level vorticity max is located
    over far southwest Kansas. This feature will move across the central
    Plains late this evening. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of
    the vorticity max, scattered strong thunderstorms are expected to
    develop across south-central Kansas, and move east-northeastward
    across eastern Kansas and Missouri. According to the RAP, MLCAPE
    within this area is between 1000 and 1500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear is in
    the 40 to 50 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates are from 7.5 to
    8 C/km. This should support a severe threat overnight, especially
    the stronger cells interact with the low-level jet. Supercells with
    large hail appear likely, and wind damage will also be possible.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 03/14/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!93Y_CfhTkPdJTUQPnLQfRBJm597gB67BZscF8yg21DZSjzAb-hHjQasW0zbsQueKXYCBnvPJm= M4NO7hY64ahT5CVxi4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 37899643 38439646 39129617 40039316 40209236 40029169
    39339119 38329112 37779177 37279309 37059441 37019556
    37059581 37329634 37899643=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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