ACUS11 KWNS 090722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090722=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-091115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0209
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024

Areas affected...extreme southeast Alabama...western Florida
Panhandle...and far southwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 090722Z - 091115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms could gradually intensify through early morning,
with a conditional threat of a tornado or a few damaging gusts. The
area is currently under observation.

DISCUSSION...A slow-moving front currently extends from near the MS
Coast into southeast AL, reinforced by convective outflow.
Thunderstorms persist along this boundary, with periodic stronger
cores.

The air mass at the surface remains very moist with dewpoints above
70 F over much of the area, the exception being the eastern FL
Panhandle and southwest GA, just east of the low-level theta-e plume
and surface trough. Subtle environmental changes are expected
through morning, and may result in an increase in severe potential, specifically, the threat for a tornado or localized damaging winds.

First, indications are that a deeper moist plume over the northern
Gulf may aid destabilization and moistening. While surface
temperature may not rise, slightly better quality moisture is
expected 1-2 km off the surface. Second, midlevel cooling with the
upper trough will persist with 1-2 C temperature drops at 500 mb
through 12Z. All the while, low-level shear will remain favorable
for a brief tornado risk with 0-1 SRH of at least 200 m2/s2.

As such, a conditional risk of isolated severe storms may
materialize later this morning, and convective trends are being
monitored along the front. Any substantive strengthening of the
storms could yield watch potential.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 03/09/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5_5MFSaincv2uzrv_7aMRIv5wgMi7c-hmtTWsKWR3El6pl3nYaOIyGL7BmJSm3ZEiu-jaj1lP= UQKdL65kpIs64F0mj0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30858762 31088724 31318657 31538610 31558547 31658498
31838437 31708392 31298371 30908423 30528503 30138579
30298628 30328679 30258715 30278740 30548771 30858762=20


=3D =3D =3D
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