ACUS11 KWNS 081849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081849=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-082045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2024

Areas affected...parts of the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 081849Z - 082045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two should
slowly increase through the afternoon. Confidence in storm evolution
is low, but the increase in severe risk may warrant weather watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...As of 1845 UTC, regional radar and satellite analysis
showed a complex convective regime across parts of the lower MS
valley and central Gulf Coast. A cluster of mostly elevated
thunderstorms residing along a composite outflow/warm front across
southern MS into southwest AL has shown occasional strengthening
early this afternoon. A relatively broad warm sector to the south of
the outflow has allowed for sporadic discrete thunderstorm
initiation across southern LA within the last hour. With limited
inhibition and 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE from the 18z LIX
sounding/SPC mesoanalysis, thunderstorms could gradually intensify
within the warm sector. Deep-layer shear of 50+ kt would support
storm organization into a supercells or short linear segments
capable of damaging gusts. Large low-level hodograph curvature,
especially near the warm front/outflow farther east, may also
support a risk for a tornado or two if more persistent supercells
are able to organize.

Confidence in overall convective evolution is low given relatively
broad cloud cover from ongoing storms and poor mid-level lapse
rates. Storms may take some time to organize and numerous storm
interactions are expected within the weakly capped/forced air mass. Experimental WOFS guidance does show a gradual increase in severe
probabilities with time, assuming the ongoing convection is able to
sustain itself. Given the broadly favorable environment and
potential for increasing severe risk, a weather watch is possible in
the next 1-2 hours.

..Lyons/Smith.. 03/08/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9lAlPM94X0XurxIwSS0HCgQPFJYR14SmTExlT7w8dCsG-76Tvl1GVeTjDtemLjJ7A9jOrb-aK= cTLyhPtY4D8VGTW-W8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29259082 29639250 29749312 29959324 30899232 31349178
31639024 31788928 31988846 31928826 31698788 30968777
30678781 30408787 30268790 30168835 29668942 29378997
29259068 29259082=20


=3D =3D =3D
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