• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0198

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Mar 7 19:31:12 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 071931
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071930=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-072130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0198
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0130 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

    Areas affected...Central and western Oklahoma into northwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 071930Z - 072130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the coming
    hours. These storms will initially pose a large hail threat before transitioning to primarily a severe wind threat during the evening
    hours. Watch issuance is probable.

    DISCUSSION...Surface observations over the past few hours have shown
    gradual moisture return into western OK ahead of a sharpening
    dryline/surface trough. Although this moisture is somewhat meager
    (low to mid 50 dewpoints), steep mid-level lapse rates continue to
    overspread the region amid a west/southwesterly mid-level flow
    regime. While MLCAPE remains very minimal at the moment, continued
    low-level moisture return should result in gradually improving
    buoyancy through the late afternoon and evening hours. Regardless,
    ascent associated with a subtle mid-level perturbation is
    overspreading the TX Panhandle with high-based cumulus development
    noted behind the dryline. This ascent is forecast to reach the warm
    sector across western OK/northwest TX in the coming hours, and
    recent HRRR/WOFS runs suggest initiation is likely during the 21-23
    UTC period. Although convection may initially be anemic owing to the
    modest buoyancy, the severe threat should steadily increase heading
    into the evening hours with initially discrete cells posing a large
    hail risk across northwest TX/western OK before upscale growth
    favors an increasing wind threat further east into central OK. Watch
    issuance is probable in the coming hours as sufficient buoyancy
    becomes established to support severe convection.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 03/07/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7MvCKiq0g6O3pVdh1skD1bFIhUUTCs5bcIAGYVTiY6MSk0BzRxhu-kiHGDNWwv-BaDv_I0_pI= rFtG_yxDWH-v-Y0hd8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...

    LAT...LON 34180013 34789986 35689964 36419931 36759878 36869847
    36809814 36609783 36379758 36099737 35719730 35379741
    35009772 34559806 33909871 33629900 33499931 33579970
    33619988 33780017 34180013=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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