ACUS11 KWNS 071642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071642=20
NEZ000-COZ000-072045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado to southwest Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 071642Z - 072045Z

SUMMARY...The potential for heavy snowfall rates above 1 inch/hour
will increase through early afternoon across parts of northeast
Colorado into southwest Nebraska.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, surface observations across
northeast CO have shown a steady reduction in visibility due to
falling snow as low-level temperatures fall below freezing and allow
a p-type transition to mainly snow. This activity is largely being
driven by a corridor of focused ascent within a warm advection
regime between roughly 850-650 mb to the north of a meandering
vorticity maximum (evident in water-vapor and regional radar
imagery). Broad ascent within a mid-level deformation zone draped
over the region should not only augment local ascent, but also
prolong the duration of precipitation through the afternoon/evening.
This should foster a swath of moderate to heavy snow with snowfall
rates between 1-2 inches/hour. Furthermore, upstream lightning and
regional 12 UTC soundings indicated mid-level lapse rates are
sufficiently steep for a continuation of weak convection across
parts of CO/NE, which may lead to brief bursts of heavier snowfall.
Latest high-res guidance suggests the onset of heavier snowfall
rates is probable during the 18-20 UTC period, which seems
reasonable based on the aforementioned observed trends.

..Moore.. 03/07/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_p9btusuLUe7CgS5R-0BrvAqm2POwRp5XqP4wcTWKl9GaDX4RpdRlxP7QtDUEDmlXbuTLkoBC= YYh6rfLI-30jj_n-jA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40130357 40920323 41110300 41530223 41590196 41590167
41450139 41210129 40850163 40680191 40450233 40210263
39930292 39860306 39840320 39930352 40130357=20


=3D =3D =3D
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