1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0188

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 4 17:34:50 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 041734
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041734=20
    LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-041930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0188
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1134 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024

    Areas affected...far east TX into LA and southwest MS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 041734Z - 041930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
    through the afternoon. Hail (a few instances near 1 inch diameter)
    and gusty winds (to 50 mph) may accompany this activity.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in
    coverage/intensity over the next few hours from far east TX into
    much of LA. Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s to near 70 F
    beneath steep midlevel lapse rates are fostering MLCAPE generally
    around 1500 J/kg at midday. Meanwhile, 0-6 km effective shear
    magnitudes around 30-35 kt will be marginally favorable for
    supercells. Already a few cells across LA have shown transient, weak
    rotation. This environment will mainly support isolated hail (a few
    instances of near 1 inch diameter) and gusty winds (to 50 mph).

    Vertically veering low-level flow will support some potential for
    low-level rotation, and regional VWP data shows favorably curved
    (albeit small) low-level hodographs. Generally weak low-level winds
    and a lack of well-defined surface boundaries will likely limit
    tornado potential.=20

    Given the expected transient and isolated nature of any stronger, well-organized cells, a watch is not expected at this time.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 03/04/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7NZm5erOpJG_gA5oxmRDoADMzl4LbI9k1P29HayGcbEXEa6UEB_5V-gihCkCfqfPas43JcEZF= GVT7n71HslH1WaeW1M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31599450 32109443 32599403 32749353 32689248 31339083
    29828929 29428933 29378996 29899154 30319276 30589356
    31109424 31599450=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)