ACUS11 KWNS 031806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031806=20
FLZ000-032030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024

Areas affected...central and southern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 031806Z - 032030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development appears probable
across much of the interior into southeastern peninsular Florida
through 3-5 PM EST, accompanied by small to marginally severe hail
and a risk for localized damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Weak deep-layer warm advection appears underway across
much of the Florida peninsula, with low-amplitude mid-level
troughing in the process of gradually shifting offshore of the
Atlantic coast. However, around 500 mb, temperatures are still
generally around -13 to -15 C, with one lingering axis of colder
temperatures forecast to spread across the interior peninsula into
Atlantic coastal areas through 21-23Z.

Beneath this environment, daytime heating of a relatively moist
boundary layer with surface dew points ranging from the mid 60s to
near 70 F is contributing to substantive destabilization, with CAPE
increasing through 1000-1500+ J/kg. Although low-level convergence,
and forcing for upward vertical motion in general, appears weak,
deepening convection with widely scattered thunderstorm development
is underway across the interior through southeastern peninsula
coastal areas. And a gradual further increase and intensification
of storms seems probable through mid to late afternoon, as potential instability peaks.

Although flow in the lowest 5-6 km AGL is generally weak, stronger
flow (50+ kt) in higher levels may still enhance thunderstorm
development, and contribute to potential for small to marginally
severe hail in the stronger cells developing this afternoon. As
low-level lapse rates continue to steepen, heavy precipitation
loading and latent cooling aided by melting hail probably will also
contribute to potential for isolated locally damaging downbursts.

..Kerr/Hart.. 03/03/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4f8R6X7Qr4DEnsRCqKMFfgIYCCFSNU7vQU4eq3ROprA0Za63MqsmXauTLFYBZxjKKgSjwIXMM= 5OoCPCWzJ0mBgx-5jA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 29618263 29658184 28808139 28348083 27778056 27138002
25998046 26348091 26608135 27628165 28158220 28698224
29618263=20


=3D =3D =3D
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