1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0156

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Feb 23 00:13:30 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 230013
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230012=20
    MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-230215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0156
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0612 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

    Areas affected...portions of central Arkansas into northwest
    Mississippi and far southwest Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 230012Z - 230215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may pose a risk for
    marginally severe hail and gusty winds this evening. A watch is not
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...As of 00z, regional radar analysis showed isolated
    thunderstorms over parts of central and northern AR. Over the past
    30-45 min, a few of these storms have shown occasional weak
    supercell characteristics and deeper reflectively cores. The
    environment is still relatively limited with only 500-1000 J/kg of
    MUCAPE and 25-30 kt of effective shear. While not overly robust, the environment should remain capable of supporting marginal storm
    organization for a few hours this evening as storms move
    southeastward. Mid-level lapse rates around 7 c/km and 25-30 kt of
    effective shear may allow for marginally severe hail and or strong
    outflow winds from the strongest storms. The severe threat should
    gradually wane through the later evening hours as the loss of
    diurnal heating and nocturnal stabilization work to weaken ongoing
    storms. Given the limited potential for storm organization, and the
    isolated nature of the severe threat, a weather watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 02/23/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6-GHrhwlkXpnr5cDcxOmU1-4hseR7PeM35KTimbQs85q8CxVtkxm45h8Xlzpar_Rz0rj7udFX= dn90TH4aOZ-dgUn4CU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...TSA...

    LAT...LON 35049424 35359424 35889333 35869222 35779123 35759110
    35258993 34898958 33918983 33359061 33419208 34379390
    35049424=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)