ACUS11 KWNS 221941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221941=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-222245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

Areas affected...southern Missouri into northern Arkansas and far
western Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221941Z - 222245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are forecast to gradually form near a
cold front as it moves from southern Missouri into northern
Arkansas. A few storms may produce marginally severe hail.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a mixture of cloud
cover across the area, with distinct areas of heating. Recently,
low-topped convection has begun to form along western portions of
the area along the front, within a convergence zone. Area VWPs
indicate the front is several km deep, which will aid boundary-layer
lift and eventual cap breakage.

As gradual low-level warming occurs from the southwest, inhibition
will eventually be eroded near the front/surface trough. Although
moisture is limited with less than 1.00" PWAT and dewpoints in the
50s F, cool temperatures aloft will allow for 500 to perhaps as much
as 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level winds are relatively weak, but
favorable deep-layer shear exists primarily above 500 mb. As such, a
few storms this afternoon and into the early evening may produce
marginal severe hail, with strong wind potential most likely late as
storms produce aggregate outflow and propagate east/southeast toward
northern MS.

..Jewell/Kerr.. 02/22/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8WlgvIuu2AV71bTI_QgLVwLMLKINfHOzi2y_QSE5_izVJMIbdYfVrgH_nCVa9TBL2nhgh4n-4= uSrGs05XclYaoTJ3AY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 35739376 36179356 36409259 37009063 37028986 36368942
35798966 35279068 34939214 34959328 35249362 35739376=20


=3D =3D =3D
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