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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0153

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Feb 18 23:02:18 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 182302
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182301=20
    NYZ000-190300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0153
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0501 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024

    Areas affected...Northern New York

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 182301Z - 190300Z

    SUMMARY...Periodic snow squalls will be possible in the coming hours
    as a cold front approaches northern New York.

    DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar composites and surface
    observations show a persistent snow band moving east across
    southeast Ontario. This band is primarily being driven by ascent
    along a cold front - likely through a shallow layer from the surface
    to around 700 mb where lapse rates are on the order of 7 C/km based
    on recent RAP mesoanalyses and forecast soundings. The snow
    band/cold front is expected to continue to push east into upstate NY
    within the next few hours. The combination of persistent frontal
    ascent, steep low-level lapse rates, and 25-30 mph wind gusts (which
    have been observed across southeast Ontario with the passage of the
    band/front) suggests snow squall conditions will be possible. Snow
    squall potential will likely be greatest along the eastern shores of
    Lake Ontario with diminishing confidence in snow squall potential
    with east/southeastern extent as low-level lapse rates begin to
    diminish due to the onset of nocturnal cooling.

    ..Moore.. 02/18/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5aplXT2Z5Rwd0yjg-hVy-aoweoZVovnxe1VGYS3v3KBo2_VaQC7thMAcIap0q7EcMPFwD69NT= -HESLKb4ojiWSp6nJo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 42747618 42677673 42737739 43037864 43187890 43357895
    43527872 43507764 43587718 43747689 44307641 44787553
    44977489 44977457 44757421 44577407 44287405 43117527
    42887565 42747618=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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