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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0141

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Feb 13 13:27:57 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 131327
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131327=20
    MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-131630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0141
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0727 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024

    Areas affected...eastern Long Island through southeastern New
    England

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 131327Z - 131630Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snow, including hourly rates increasing in excess of
    2 inches, appears likely to continue developing east-northeastward
    across eastern Long Island through the Cape Cod vicinity through 10
    AM-1 PM EST.

    DISCUSSION...The rapidly deepening surface cyclone has shifted
    offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast and is likely to continue
    tracking east-northeastward to the south of the Long Island and Cape
    Cod vicinities through midday. Cooling cloud tops evident in recent
    satellite imagery across southeastern Pennsylvania into the lower
    Hudson Valley appear reflective of a strengthening zone of
    mid/upper-level frontogenesis, which is forecast to continue to
    develop east-northeastward to the north of the surface cyclone. As
    forcing for ascent within this zone becomes maximized within the
    layer most conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth
    (temperatures around -15C), initially near or just below 500 mb in
    forecast soundings before slowly lowering, it appears that heaviest
    snow rates will shift across the eastern Long Island/Long Island
    Sound through Cape Cod vicinities between 15-18Z. With
    precipitable water beginning to approach .8 inches, and lift
    forecast to intensify further, particularly near Cape Cod, heaviest
    sustained snow rates may increase in excess of 2 inches per hour.

    ..Kerr.. 02/13/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_MIfyDMYlwfJagWptyfeRNKYbMDk6tRuUnpgPuCI9r4BquVWiAb9wi9-KE7OwIR--XeXm8TRW= Fax1U8jmXT0t3z_Z1A$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

    LAT...LON 41727233 42277016 41606965 41167121 40787264 41727233=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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