ACUS11 KWNS 121016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121016=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-121245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0137
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0416 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

Areas affected...parts of far southeastern Mississippi...southern
Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 22...23...

Valid 121016Z - 121245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 22, 23 continues.

SUMMARY...While the ongoing, slowly eastward advancing line of
storms may continue to weaken into and beyond daybreak, intensifying
new thunderstorm development ahead of it may begin to pose
increasing potential for at least severe hail and locally damaging
wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Mid/upper flow appears to trending increasingly
difluent across the north central into northeastern Gulf coast
vicinity, as a significant upstream short wave trough begins to take
on more of a neutral to negative tilt across the southern Great
Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Beneath this regime,
increasing large-scale ascent, aided by low-level warm advection,
likely is contributing to an increase in convective development
offshore of southeastern Louisiana coastal areas into southern
Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.=20=20

Across and inland of the coastal waters a shallow moist adiabatic or
more stable near-surface layer appears to linger based on model
forecast soundings. However, CAPE for slightly elevated most
unstable parcels might be as high as 1000 J/kg, which may support a
continuing increase and intensification of this newer thunderstorm
development. Latest trends appear to support the High Resolution
Rapid Refresh depiction that this will become the most prominent
thunderstorm activity into and beyond daybreak, while the trailing
ongoing pre-frontal line of thunderstorms dissipates.=20=20

It appears that this may coincide with notable strengthening of a
southerly low-level jet off the Gulf of Mexico (40-50+ kt around 850
mb), with forecasts soundings exhibiting enlarging low-level
hodographs at least somewhat more conducive to supercells structures potentially supportive of a risk for tornadoes. Otherwise, stronger
new thunderstorm development may gradually pose increasing potential
for severe hail and locally damaging surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 02/12/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5YRUiEgAZIY3uDtWHX6Ren3S2jRlFg0c3KAUrQhlvSL30Njg1QH_5f-FScHsLc63ulzhCkTBj= ZAO2GTm_y05bI2IwhA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 30158885 31098837 31678769 31708655 31778553 30848535
30258516 29728609 29368737 29278885 29518929 30158885=20


=3D =3D =3D
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