ACUS11 KWNS 111704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111704=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-111900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Areas affected...Parts of central/southern Louisiana into southern
Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 111704Z - 111900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, possibly strong, and very large
hail will develop this afternoon along the warm front in central LA
into southern MS. A tornado watch is likely for parts of these
areas.

DISCUSSION...Upper 60s F dewpoints are present south of the slowly
lifting warm front across central LA/southern MS. A cirrus plume
associated with the subtropical jet has generally shifted east
allowing at least broken surface heating into the low 70s F. With
time, additional heating should promote 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by the
afternoon. Deep-layer shear is more than adequate for supercells,
which are already ongoing in southeast Texas moving roughly parallel
to the warm front. Supercell storms that can remain near the
boundary will take advantage of enhanced low-level shear/SRH. There
are signs of modestly deepening boundary-layer rolls in the vicinity
of central LA/southwest MS. This is a potential area for additional
storm development later today, which has also been hinted at by
recent HRRR runs. Mid-level ascent is currently weak so it may take
more time for any potential development to occur. Given the
environment, tornadoes, some potentially strong, and very large hail
(1.75-2.75 in.) are possible. A tornado watch will likely be needed
within the next 2 hours, unless storms develop along the warm front
sooner than anticipated.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 02/11/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_xcVjWRg5aCJIqAvA2_yMQd8GW3HdkMLd-CvJCwiM8kxHpGp75aD3FN66Fd-zZY8Tss_UBnse= zEPNTRxbug73kEska4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31079341 31129336 31499279 32089135 32568941 32578863
32258861 31588922 31168991 30859061 30649154 30409246
30239321 30439360 30809354 31079341=20


=3D =3D =3D
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