ACUS11 KWNS 111521
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111520=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-111645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0125
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Areas affected...Portions of far northeast TX and northern LA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 16...17...

Valid 111520Z - 111645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 16, 17
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail will remain the primary severe threat
with elevated supercells this morning, but occasional strong/severe
winds may also occur.

DISCUSSION...A pair of elevated supercells will continue to move
eastward over far northeast TX and northern LA over the next couple
of hours. Even though MUCAPE remains fairly modest, generally
500-1000 J/kg per latest mesoanalysis, ample cloud-layer shear with long/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels is easily supporting
continued supercell intensity. Large hail, potentially up to 2-2.5
inches in diameter, will remain the primary severe hazard this
morning given the tendency for this severe convection to remain
elevated well to the north of a surface boundary draped across
southeast TX into central LA. Even so, a recent wind gust to 59 mph
was measured at KSHV with the northern-most supercell. Occasional
strong to severe winds may occur with the more intense downdrafts
able to penetrate the near-surface stable layer.

..Gleason.. 02/11/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7-06Cc1tjOh5rmaLD54qGOC94BzjTwfkYDiaDwf5oJ4PZ9hGrQythU3gYOwWzWNU9dii_m-QF= 9_nN-uyhJVpNwvHbIs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...

LAT...LON 31729477 32509399 32709394 32879371 32949232 32399208
31649242 31359412 31489468 31729477=20


=3D =3D =3D
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