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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0120

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Feb 11 05:57:01 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 110556
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110556=20
    TXZ000-110730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0120
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1156 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

    Areas affected...TX Big Country into the Edwards Plateau

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15...

    Valid 110556Z - 110730Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The large hail threat is expected to increase overnight as
    storms move eastward.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated convection erupted earlier this evening from
    the western part of the Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country, as
    an upper low approaching from NM began to impinge on the western
    portion of the primary instability axis. Increasing deep-layer shear
    will be supportive of organized convection overnight as convection
    moves eastward, and a few supercells may continue to evolve (like
    recent development south of Abilene and west of San Angelo) out of
    the ongoing elevated storm cluster overnight. MUCAPE increasing into
    1000 J/kg and steep midlevel lapse rates will continue to support a
    hail threat, with very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter
    possible with any stronger supercell.=20

    As long as storms remain semi-discrete and elevated, hail will be
    the primary threat, with perhaps some localized strong gusts. If
    convection can build into the southern portion of WW 15 closer to
    the surface boundary, then the threat may increase for a
    near-surface-based supercell, which would pose a conditional risk of
    all severe hazards. That scenario remains very uncertain at this
    time, however.

    ..Dean.. 02/11/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4lYHwLeofLT_6Lq32e01SZ4GYYch-sBWT7MDlyL-BIJo2pRrjIQ1rffSRWbHK8ai-t8U8wwCY= zje9OHXMZ25aZSRbgI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30510217 31780056 32369941 32939903 32789829 32239821
    31209886 30120009 29780059 29660102 29660115 29730188
    29860225 30260237 30510217=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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