ACUS11 KWNS 051020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051019=20
FLZ000-051215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024

Areas affected...South FL and the Keys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 051019Z - 051215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms may develop eastward across
south FL and the Keys over the next few hours. Gusty winds and hail
may accompany the strongest cells.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms will continue to shift
eastward over the next several hours, arriving near the southwest FL
coast and the Keys by around 11-12z, and spreading east across the
MCD area through mid-morning.

Boundary-layer moisture across the region remains modest, with
dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60 F. RAP forecast soundings also
exhibit somewhat dry air aloft. This will largely limit
surface-based instability, with only weak MLCAPE noted in forecast
soundings and latest mesoanalysis data. Nevertheless, somewhat
strong vertical shear will overspread the area through the morning
hours, aiding in transient strong/organized convection.
Elongated/straight hodographs, in conjunction with somewhat cold
temperatures aloft and favorable storm-relative flow, suggest some
potential for marginally severe hail with strongest storm cores.
Locally strong gusts also may accompany this activity.=20

Given low-level inhibition and overall poor thermodynamic
environment, severe convection is expected to remain limited and a
watch is not expected at this time.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 02/05/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9q5upYJvSOsS94Afm5cOxGMOcJqPCFZAmg3gFIeyhRcJRRtrTjPJfXqBu5tXrsMPXcopmJxiv= Svq2Kw6hBLO-zSUMew$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON 24768304 25148309 25378288 25758224 26008087 26058009
25977988 25487997 25038022 24538081 24328153 24288199
24358224 24608280 24768304=20


=3D =3D =3D
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