ACUS11 KWNS 041902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041901=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-042100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0106
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024

Areas affected...Eastern FL Panhandle into Northern FL and Far
Southeast GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 041901Z - 042100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated low-topped supercells capable of damaging gusts
and brief tornadoes are possible across northern FL and far southern
GA this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 35 miles
north of AAF in the central FL Panhandle. A warm from extends east-northeastward from this low into extreme southeast GA/northeast
FL, while a cold front arcs southeastward to the Tampa Bay vicinity,
remaining mostly offshore. Radar imagery from KTLH has shown several
low-topped rotating storms near the warm front just east/northeast
of TLH. Given the lack of buoyancy, updrafts are likely being
augmented by favorable interaction with the warm front, with the
strong low-level shear then resulting in tornadogenesis. Additional
development is occurring south of the warm front, and there is some
chance that continued interaction with the warm front could result
in another brief tornado.

A somewhat separate regime is developing within the warm sector
downstream of the approaching Pacific cold front. Clearing within
the dry slot is allowing for filtered heating and steepening of the
low-level lapse rates. At the same time, cold mid-level temperatures
continue to advect over the region, with 500-mb temperatures likely
dropping to -20 deg C across much of northern FL by later this
afternoon. Shallow thunderstorm development is expected along and
ahead of the front across northern FL this afternoon. Veering
low-level flow will be in place, and the potential for a few
low-topped supercells exists. However, buoyancy will be modest and
is expected to limit both updraft strength and duration, leading to
uncertainty on the number and coverage of supercells. This
uncertainty tempers the overall watch probability, but convective
trends will be monitored closely this afternoon for potential watch
issuance.

..Mosier/Goss.. 02/04/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-HUB3klp70ZeLdzWppNVTmrmYEkXqvKpO0RhOqGuHIIi2Ald9jBZ0lgfvI0wZn2qurf-FWJVt= SRGQ59oltNTygwAYe0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 30358457 30748417 30868296 30628162 29968143 29088214
29198300 29808378 30358457=20


=3D =3D =3D
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