ACUS11 KWNS 030220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030220=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-030345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0102
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0820 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024

Areas affected...portions of northern into central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13...

Valid 030220Z - 030345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across northern parts of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13, over central into northern TX.
Damaging gusts appear to be the main threat with a squall-line
moving across the region.

DISCUSSION...A squall line has become established from Wichita to
Kimple Counties in TX and is progressing eastward amid a marginally
sheared and buoyant airmass (i.e. 30+ kts of effective bulk shear
and 500+ J/kg MLCAPE). Surface temperatures have cooled into the
lower 60s F. However, the 00Z FWS observed sounding suggests
convective inhibition is negligible (despite a thin CAPE profile),
with a hodograph characterized by enlarged low-level curvature and
some elongation. As such, isolated damaging gusts may still
accompany the squall line for at least a few more hours. A brief
QLCS tornado also cannot be ruled out with any embedded mesovortices
that can become established within the squall line.

..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5iMI-vjAIvqq2mFtx2TWG650U_j_ut9TXaonz_ETGNKblxDiWZjJGSCuhAyNjuSwCrLmM0fYX= 4aP0Ivr8185EjQ-oPs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30799921 31049919 31669894 32759860 33619835 33889790
33219746 32139771 31199815 30949841 30729909 30799921=20


=3D =3D =3D
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