ACUS11 KWNS 030033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030033=20
TXZ000-030200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024

Areas affected...portions of northern into central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13...

Valid 030033Z - 030200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across northern portions of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13 over northern to central Texas.
Damaging gusts and large hail remain the primary concerns, though a
tornado cannot be ruled out, especially with stronger QLCS
circulations.

DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms are merging into a singular squall
line across portions of northern into central TX as large-scale
ascent continues to overspread the southern Plains. MRMS mosaic
radar imagery had displayed possible severe hail with the earlier
discrete storm modes, with a tornado also reported in southwestern
Haskell County, TX in the past hour. While a couple instances of
severe hail could still occur with the stronger storm cores,
damaging gusts may become a relatively greater threat this evening
given the transition to more linear storm modes.=20

KDYX radar data has also shown brief instances of strong low-level
rotation embedded within the maturing QLCS. Deep-layer is modest
(i.e. 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear per 00Z mesoanalysis).
However the mesoanalysis also shows 200 m2/s2 of effective SRH, and
the FWS VAD shows over 300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH with enlarged hodograph
curvature. Since the deep-layer shear vectors are also oriented
roughly normal to the convective line, a QLCS tornado cannot be
ruled out this evening.

..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4EJnOFm0aiw4XtPphorzlTqAHe677eV9_YeVbEzOveuSDM-9ILdH-Abbc9eDzxjkXijNgnp7P= TVRAYzPPQjy5eUcPzI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 31809993 31910013 32370012 32979991 33679951 33939870
33799836 33339822 32629819 31949842 31719919 31809993=20


=3D =3D =3D
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