ACUS11 KWNS 022142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022142=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-030015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0098
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024

Areas affected...Southwestern Oklahoma into North Central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 022142Z - 030015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and gusty
winds possible late afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...The air mass across southwestern Oklahoma into north
central Texas is slowly recovering after morning shower activity and
cloud cover has diminished. This can be observed in surface
temperatures warming into the upper 60s along with cu development
along the southern fringe of the eroding mid-level capping
inversion. Some stable air remains in place as observed by billow
clouds across the Red River as of 21z. Further overspreading of
ascent and cooler temperatures aloft should work to further diminish
mid-level capping. MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg have nudged their
way into portions north Central Texas just south of the Red River.=20

Storms have initiated to the southwest along and just behind the
Pacific front slowly tracking eastward. Should this corridor
continue to destabilize as deep layer shear increases into the
evening, storms moving into this region could support a risk of
large hail and damaging wind. This area will be monitored for trends
and watch potential later this afternoon/evening.

..Thornton/Goss.. 02/02/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7mfemkAfBW75rSs4BYy1CkS8ahmfjGqEShwAnunl9LJvMxw29r_2as6f104WVifqe1RSYTinZ= 6nJIHp_K4una6HXFG0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 34689887 34359866 33979860 33649863 33329913 32929969
32909991 32890003 32990025 33060036 33210041 33780029
34779987 34889961 34859922 34689887=20


=3D =3D =3D
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