ACUS11 KWNS 280045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280044=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-280245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0096
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

Areas affected...Carolina Piedmont Region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 280044Z - 280245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms, with some low risk for a brief
tornado or wind gust, will be noted across the Carolina Piedmont
region this evening.

DISCUSSION...Midlevel speed max is rotating through the base of the
MS Valley trough and should translate across the southern
Appalachians into the Piedmont region later tonight. In response to
this feature, LLJ will increase markedly across SC into western VA
by 06z which should encourage a slow northward advance of the warm
front across this region. Latest diagnostic data suggests the
boundary is currently draped from near FAY-CAE-Edgefield County SC.
Continued recovery is expected across NC as the LLJ strengthens over
the next few hours. Over the last few hours, several weak supercells
have developed within the warm advection zone. This activity should
remain focused across the Carolina Piedmont, especially along/just
north of the aforementioned warm front. Any supercells that mature
near the boundary could generate locally strong winds, and perhaps a
brief tornado. However, current trends do not suggest the overall
severe threat will warrant a watch. Will continue to monitor this
region.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 01/28/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7MX9nGbixkHnf8EZzHSHivhoXoWkrsqnMJnzqp1bEc4zkjB4QkP1u1KA8MWbx79_duXXjg54u= eKB9DuVnnC0lpDvgfE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34198226 34718093 35408006 34967930 34008045 33578200
34198226=20


=3D =3D =3D
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