ACUS11 KWNS 271839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271838=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-272045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0093
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 271838Z - 272045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A line of organized storms will impact portions of the
Florida Panhandle in the next two hours. Strong/severe gusts are the
main concern, though a tornado cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KEVX depicts a well-organized
line of storms south of Pensacola FL tracking east-northeastward at
around 45 kt. This convection is feeding off of the northern
periphery of a high theta-e air mass over the north-central Gulf of
Mexico. Current thinking is that 50 kt of 0-6 km shear (sampled by
KEVX VWP) oriented perpendicular to the leading-edge gust front
should support the maintenance of these storms. Ahead of the line,
filtered diurnal heating/destabilization of a moistening boundary
layer (upper 60s dewpoints) is ongoing over portions of the central
FL Panhandle. Given this downstream destabilization and the
increasing organization of the convective line (including northern
book-end vortex), strong to severe gusts are possible over portions
of the central Florida Panhandle in the next two hours.
Additionally, 40 kt of 0-1 km shear (per KEVX VWP) could support an
isolated embedded tornado threat. Overall, confidence in the line of
storms maintaining current intensity is not particularly high,
though convective trends are being monitored closely.

..Weinman/Hart.. 01/27/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5QJgpSyDjXnmlzjM5EpHK3-6bcwKfgiR6e6BeNDyorOn2VNNBvhct91KqZ4MO0n6K5ryqjIUW= DPSKDKp1ozce4eHSNI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON 30258606 30438610 30678586 30798551 30768503 30668449
30458421 30008416 29678451 29548491 29628540 29898573
30258606=20


=3D =3D =3D
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