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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0092

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jan 25 19:35:19 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 251935
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251934=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-252130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0092
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0134 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

    Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama...southwest Georgia
    and the extreme northern Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11...

    Valid 251934Z - 252130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A risk for occasional damaging gusts and/or a brief
    tornado will remain possible over eastern parts of WW11 and
    downstream this afternoon. No downstream watch is anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1925 UTC, mosaic radar imagery showed a line of thunderstorms ongoing across west/southwest AL. More isolated
    convection was also periodically noted ahead of the line within the
    warm sector farther north. Over the last couple of hours, occasional
    damaging gusts have been observed with stronger segments of the line
    across southern MS and southwest AL within WW11. 1000 J/kg of MCLAPE
    and 35-40 kt of effective shear will remain favorable for organized
    segments of the line as it moves toward the eastern edge of the
    watch this afternoon. While organizational trends of the line have
    been down recently owing to weakening large-scale ascent, the
    broadly favorable environment ahead will remain supportive of an
    occasional damaging gust with any stronger storms as they move to
    the east. A brief tornado is also possible given 0-1km SRH of
    100-200 m2/s2 from SPC mesoanalysis. Given the recent trends with
    the line and weakening forcing, a downstream watch is not
    anticipated at this time.

    ..Lyons.. 01/25/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8CDx-ztGf3xQd4Wp6VE3-_TPfpydz-kUm-uqA2HnBSPeZy-kPo3fS1--XiGRGxiJL3EpQKmen= Pib2FIjNWOLOnyv1Ag$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 32658736 32988658 33248558 33188503 32908460 32528440
    31938458 31548486 31158560 31028606 30898693 30898726
    30908749 30938772 31008786 31478778 32658736=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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