ACUS11 KWNS 251049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251048=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-251245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0090
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

Areas affected...Central/Southwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 251048Z - 251245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts and/or isolated instances of small
hail are possible across central and southwest LA over the next few
hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery reveals a convective line
extending from the central LA/TX border vicinity southward along the
Sabine River into far southeast TX/TX Golden Triangle. This line has
shown an increase in intensity over the past hour or so, likely
resulting from increasing large-scale ascent attendant negatively
tilted shortwave trough moving into the central portions of the
southern Plains. Prevailing low-level stability and elevated
character of this line has limited the severe potential thus far,
although a gust of 40 kt was reported at GLS.=20

Dewpoints are in the upper 50s to low 60s within the airmass
preceding the line over central and southwest LA. This limited
low-level moisture is expected to result in a prevalence of the
low-stability, keeping the overall severe potential low. Best chance
of a damaging gust will be across southwest/south-central LA where
the best low-level moisture is located. Linear storm mode suggests
the hail potential is low as well, but the combination of modest
elevated buoyancy with strong shear could result in isolated
instances of small hail.

..Mosier/Goss.. 01/25/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6hb1ezZ_iKM_VFXe4irS8IExcImZoxD205r3qL_lNLkJ_FXHf03AYQdSxetl15csLagTeti82= IQdq1UYXvkCuSqGj6M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31269357 31599323 31749234 31329186 30349175 29729208
29509250 29659324 29689392 31269357=20


=3D =3D =3D
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