ACUS11 KWNS 242344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242344=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-250115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0088
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0544 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

Areas affected...Far southeast MS/southwest AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 242344Z - 250115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A transient supercell or two might briefly brush the
coastal area of the Mississippi-Alabama border area over the next
couple hours before subsiding, with a low probability for a
brief/weak tornado.

DISCUSSION...A transient supercell recently formed offshore to the
east of St. Bernard Parish, LA within a confluent band of
semi-discrete convection that trails to the south of longer-lived
convection moving into central AL. An additional supercell may form
to the south of this one, but the overall kinematic environment will
slowly become less favorable for sustaining supercells later into
the evening. During the next few hours, 0-1 km shear around 25 kts
per the MOB VWP in conjunction with at least 68 F surface dew points
will be required to conditionally support a brief weak tornado
threat (EF0-EF1 with estimated winds around 65-95 mph). Latest RAP
and HRRR suggest a shallow stable layer just above the surface will
probably result in convection becoming quickly elevated inland.

..Grams/Thompson.. 01/24/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_KkZ0rEPtTuitLQpRymn1Q30BNg5wjfhEhnVjeLCFBlcNoQItS765qsFPRA8u6yKLYdZR84fJ= wjZGaStm0eRlqjnXwI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 29778905 30558917 30668875 30688828 30528810 30238821
29938835 29598853 29458868 29328884 29468905 29778905=20


=3D =3D =3D
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