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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0084

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jan 24 04:05:37 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 240405
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240404=20
    TXZ000-240600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0084
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1004 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024

    Areas affected...Parts of South TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 240404Z - 240600Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible
    overnight, primarily in the form of hail from 0.75-1.25 inches and
    wind from 40-60 mph.

    DISCUSSION...An uptick in thunderstorm coverage has occurred along
    and to the north of a wavy surface front from Deep South TX into
    southeast TX. The bulk of stronger mid-level flow has been confined
    to the cool side of the front per DFX and EWX VWP data, with
    pronounced weakness in the 1-3 km AGL hodograph in the CRP VWP. As
    such, along the northern gradient of modest MLCAPE amid moderate
    mid-level lapse rates, this setup will probably foster occasional
    mid-level updraft rotation. Marginally severe hail and locally
    strong gusts will likely be the main threats. A longer-duration
    supercell could evolve near the front along the northern fringe of
    mid to upper 60s surface dew points, being supported by relatively
    stronger low-level shear over southeast TX per the HGX VWP. Should
    this conditionally occur, a brief tornado will be possible.

    ..Grams/Thompson.. 01/24/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6fOC3gmVJT8xagIdkHvXbB0_zClO63ijl3q587K9xZTKQAmh6bxNXpSAaq87iXo53UB_fVN-Z= M9-vXBX9lU1x8YQZ64$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29389755 30049655 30329597 30449556 30499521 30379483
    29919488 29599500 29079562 28679650 28209773 27939844
    27799914 27789953 28049974 28489979 28689964 29389755=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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