ACUS11 KWNS 220652
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220651=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-221245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0081
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024

Areas affected...Southwest/Central/Eastern OK...Southeast KS...Southwest/South-Central MO...Northeast AR

Concerning...Freezing rain=20

Valid 220651Z - 221245Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain, with rates of 0.01" to 0.03" per hour, will
continue across much of central and eastern Oklahoma and into the
Ozark Plateau for the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery continues to show a large area
of precipitation from OK into the Ozark Plateau. This area of
precipitation, which is a supported by moderate warm-air advection
across the southern Plains, is gradually moving
eastward/northeastward and is occurring within an area of largely
sub-freezing surface temperatures. A more coherent area of
precipitation is entering the Ozark Plateau vicinity, where light
but steady precipitation should lead to freezing rain rates on the
order of 0.01" to 0.03" per hour. This initial area of precipitation
is followed by a more banded precipitation structure, which is
ongoing over central OK now. Precipitation rates within these bands
are likely equivalent to those within the more broad area of
precipitation (i.e. around 0.01" to 0.03"), but higher rates are
possible if deeper convection is realized within any of these bands.
Lightning was recently observed in Cooke County TX, which is
indicative of some deeper convective cores and higher precipitation
rates.=20

Temperatures across this region are expected to stay below freezing
for the next several hours, with temperatures then warming above
freezing around 10 to 12Z across south-central and southeast OK.
Gradual warming is expected to then expand northeastward over time,
ending the threat for freezing rain.

..Mosier.. 01/22/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!66I7Uy7A8C_PDKq3WqPjuLoHsiONoNvC3qf-JV9M97yKZIzN5UH5cffX3DOMYtLifKoHc4vgn= 3Ni_U58crzuLd-cAxc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34309907 35519815 36339726 37409554 37489206 35889252
34139432 33769678 34309907=20


=3D =3D =3D
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