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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0077

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jan 17 02:55:26 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 170255
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170254=20
    NYZ000-170730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0077
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0854 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024

    Areas affected...Downstream of Lakes Ontario and Erie

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 170254Z - 170730Z

    SUMMARY...An intense lake effect snow band off of Lake Ontario will
    persist through the overnight hours, with rates up to 2 in/hr. An
    additional lake effect band may intensify off of Lake Erie through
    the early morning hours.

    DISCUSSION...On the backside of a departing midlevel shortwave
    trough lifting northeastward across the Northeast, low/midlevel flow
    has become favorably aligned with the long axis of Lake Ontario,
    where an intense lake effect snow band has developed. Latest radar
    data and web cams suggest rates up to 2 in/hr over Oswego County
    with this organized band. Over the next few hours, low-level flow
    should remain unidirectional and maintain a favorable direction for
    the persistence of this band, with the heaviest snowfall rates
    expected over Oswego County. Rates up to 2 in/hr will be aided by
    persistent surface confluence along the lake and a modestly deep
    convective boundary layer extending up to about 2 km. In the 04-06Z
    time frame, low-level flow will back to a west-southwesterly
    direction, likely shifting the lake effect band northward into
    Jefferson County with time. However, increasing subsidence on the
    backside of the aforementioned midlevel trough could lead to
    decreased convective boundary layer depths and a slight reduction in
    rates.

    Off of Lake Erie, latest radar data shows some intensification of a
    lake effect snow band extending into Erie County. While low-level
    flow is modestly aligned with the long axis of the lake, the backing
    low-level winds with time should yield a more persistent band into
    the early morning hours. Thermodynamic conditions appear slightly
    less conducive compared to Lake Ontario, though rates could approach
    2 in/hr if the snow band becomes persistent and organized.

    ..Weinman.. 01/17/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4wmN_JO8RfPdLe4FVLQ7SAUQAMCMhLXcvHTjWYcgB4t6fWzfW5xFTsIXG8Jzrb1zwz2Eijdkg= 2NXBDxoBJryTondwkc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 43287614 43427682 43567703 43747686 43877642 43877607
    43847576 43747538 43527526 43207551 43287614=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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